Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/6/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. It was another rainless week here in central Ohio, but we did get a reprieve from last week's nasty heat. They say rain is coming tonight, but I’m not holding my breath. The last measurable rain at my house was Aug 4th, and it was 2-tenths of an inch. It’s been another big week of inbound grain as the old crop corn continues to flow hard out of bins. We have had a few reports of some harvest activity, but it is just in the infant stages. Look for things to pick up next week. Corn basis continues to be very weak as I said earlier. We continue to see massive amounts of corn hitting the market. Bean basis on the other hand feels to be strengthening as of late. Fund traders the last couple of weeks have quietly bought back almost one third of their short corn position, taking them to short 242,000 contracts in last week's report. They still haven’t had any interest in buying back beans, but on the other hand they haven’t been adding to the already short position. We had a great week of new crop sales in this morning’s report. Over 70 million bushels of corn and 60 million bushels of beans for the week. Not too shabby, but we are starting to see some real problems developing on the Mississippi River. First, the southern harvest is gobbling up all the empty freight it can and secondly, we are seeing some low water levels again causing tow and draft restrictions on northern loaders. These two factors have had barge freight screaming higher.

Corn conditions this week were reported at 42% good to excellent. That’s down 7 from last week and down from 80% for the same week last year. Bean conditions were down 2 points to 46% good to excellent compared to 76% last year. I’m still not sure how we are going to have bigger yields per acre over last year with those comparisons. Thanks and have a great weekend.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Grain markets started off in the green this morning as we saw decent new crop export sales and flash sales of 126k mt and 189k mt of soybeans to China and unknown destinations. However, we couldn’t hold onto that strength once the day trade opened back up. CZ25 popped through the 50-day moving average this week before settling back down today at that $4.06 level. SX24 beans tried to follow suit but lacked follow-through. We touched the 50-day moving average around $10.30 before quickly retreating. Days like today prove the importance of having target offers and a game plan in place in order to take advantage of opportunities in the marketplace when they arise.

Combines are starting up in some places, while others are a few short weeks away, so don’t forget to re-evaluate your marketing plans and talk with your local merchandiser to explore your options. Rain chances continue to back off this weekend despite the need. I hope everyone enjoys the cooler weather this weekend. It sure is starting to feel like September. Good luck to all of our 4-H kids at the county fairs!

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

It’s Fair week here in Hardin County, and I want to say congratulations to all the young and not-so-young participants. We have had beautiful weather, but boy, is it getting dry. Our first new corn came in yesterday; it was running anywhere from 19-15.8% moisture. Most producers I have talked to think they will try beans in a couple of weeks or maybe by the end of next week if it gets hot again. The forecast sure is not calling for rain and will make for a harvest without delays.

The markets had a decent run this week but couldn’t hold on today. Corn and beans are up about 7¢ for the week; that’s nothing to complain about, considering the time of year. Enjoy your weekend.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

We saw the first few loads of new crop beans come into Upper this week. The moisture for these loads was decently low, and beans were looking good. We have been seeing a lot of farmers delivering old crop corn this week. I believe that many held onto corn with the hope of improved markets, and when this wasn’t the case, it seemed like there was some last-minute scrambling to get things prepared for an anticipated early and quick harvest. It appears that, although the dryness late in the growing season has not affected crop condition as many had expected, results from the StoneX crop survey show that yields through the Midwest have not been affected, and the yield potential remains high.

We saw some short rallies this week, but the Black Sea drought has caused the cash market in that region to remain weak, leading to difficulty in sustaining rallies. Brazil has seen very dry conditions and needs to see rainfall in order to begin planting. If they are not able to get seed in the ground, this could provide the US a wider exporting window that could extend beyond January.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Labor Day has come and gone, and we are now getting ready for harvest. We have seen a few farmers in the area poking around at some early beans that are ready. I know of a customer that shelled some corn yesterday. We have seen many samples of corn come in the door that we have hand-shelled around that 19 to 20 range. If the weather forecast is correct, we will not see a lot of corn drying this fall as in a few weeks this crop with be dried out.

We have seen the corn and soybean markets move off of their late August lows. The dry weather and the funds reducing their short positions has helped spur the markets higher. The farmer is still way undersold on the crop as he is still cleaning up old crops from last year.

It will be different because we have good carry in the markets, but does that carry stand as we move forward? My concern on putting grain in the bin and not locking in the carry is that if South America has a big crop, our market action could be very similar to a year ago as the from-month trades to where the previous contract went off the board. Yes, 4.20 to 4.30 March futures may not look bad today but when we get to January or February where is the price? The big factor on what our corn and soybean futures prices do is what kind of crop do we have in South America. They will be planting soon, so by the end of January we should have a handle on what they have and how that will affect spring price action.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

September brings a new crop year and harvest knocking on our door. There are a few customers who have run both corn and soybeans already this week. Obviously, variety and conditions make a difference, but for these fields, moistures on soybeans have been 10-14% while corn is ranging from 15-28%. There’s still plenty of green left in area fields, but I imagine most will get an earlier start this year than the last few years.

Seven trading sessions ago, December corn futures made new lows, but since then the market has moved higher on all but two days. November soybean futures have also had a nice run since its low three weeks ago. Does this mean we’ve seen the bottom, and it only gets better from here? I haven’t changed my sentiment from bearish to bullish just yet. A very large crop is still coming at us from throughout the Midwest. StoneX released their latest yield estimates this week and Ohio was the only state with yield decreases from last month. On corn, 7 states increased their yield estimates while 8 states increased soybean yield. They have the national averages pegged at 182.9 corn and 53 beans, very near the latest USDA report. As the saying goes, big crops get bigger. If you haven’t sold any new crop yet, perhaps it’s time to take advantage of the little bump we've seen recently to get something on the books. Have a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon, I hope all of you are doing well. Grain markets have rallied off their recent lows over the last 10 days or so. Dec24 corn looks to close the week out above the $4 mark and Nov24 beans look to close $10 mark on the CBOT.  We had a couple of things that have helped that rally but nothing earth-shattering. In fact, this week we saw another private estimate from Stone X confirming that this years crop still looks very large. Stone X put the national corn yield at 182.9 bpa and that was up from 182.3 in their Aug report. They had beans up to 53 bpa and up slightly from 52.6 in August. So, the crop continues to grow as we move closer to harvest.

Fundamentally, its hard to find a story that makes the markets rally very much. This rally we saw in the last 10 days is tied to a couple little stories. As we approach planting season in South America it has been very dry down there and there is some concern about planting into that dry of an area. Dryness is also an issue in Ukraine and that has spared some fund short covering.

Here in NE Ohio we have been very dry. Areas south of Canfield have been extremely dry over the last few weeks. I have talked to a number of folks that are chopping and most are saying how quickly the corn is drying out. I think bean harvest will be early this year as well. Have a great weekend.